Garmisch and St. Moritz downhills are coming up tomorrow. The girls had a Super Combi today that was won by Lindsey and allowed her to increase her hold on the overall. She has a 302 point lead over Tina Maze and I honestly see her winning the downhill tomorrow and the SG/ Super Combi on Sunday. If that is the case, 1270 points by the end of January is a huge total. As a reference, she won the overall in 2008 with just over 1400 points. And if you look at the rest of the season, she could go well over 2000 points and that would be something to celebrate! If she averages 50 points per race the rest of the season after St. Moritz, she would fall just short of 2000. I think she will do better than that.
ST. MORITZ
The very famous resort in the Engadin area of Switzerland is known as a playground of the rich and famous. From the horse races on the lake to sail boarding on the ice, the valley looks like a carnival every day of winter. And high up, far above the valley floor, the downhill track starts at the very top of the ski area and ends before the tree line. Because of the high altitude and the traditionally cold weather, the track is often characterized by very hard, dry and severely aggressive surfaces. The track also has a ton of terrain, some big jumps and a lot of blind turns and fall-aways. As a result, you normally want to go as late as you can so the track compacts a bit and the more experienced skiers have an advantage having skied there a few times. In addition, the two times I have been there for races, have been among the coldest I have ever been on a race hill.
Anyway, the past has not been that kind to Lindsey in St. Moritz. She was 5th twice. Once in 2008 and once in 2010 but she is a different skier and a different person now. I still look at her to win this thing tomorrow. Looking at the rest of the American girls, Alice McKennis has a good recent history as does Stacey Cook. And in the Downhill portion of the combi today, Leanne Smith was 3rd and Julia was 4th. At the very least, there will be a lot on confidence going into race day for the girls. With the weather looking pretty clear and cold, the start numbers will play a role. The cold snow, dry snow at high altitude is loaded with static and creates a lot of friction. At -15 Celsius tonight on the course with some wind, the surface will be slow at first. Starting later will be better. I don’ think it matters once you get about 8 girls down the track but very early could be a drag on the skis. If they have enough forerunners, that will help. But with forerunners, they are not always able to hold the race line that the World Cup girls can and the earliest starters often end up on clean snow. And clean, cold, dry snow has a lot of friction. So, that being said, Laurenne and Alice drew numbers 1 and 2, so I hope I am wrong on that one. Leanne starts number 4. Cookie starts 10, which is really right where the best numbers will start to be. And I really do think you need to look to the bigger girls, starting 16-22 to have the biggest impact. Lindsey chose 20 which is really perfect. And Maria goes 21. For me, they are first and second with Lindsey winning. Tina Maze also is a bigger girl and has a nice number at 18. I would be looking at someone like Merighetti too as she won in Cortina which also has a lot of terrain and she is a vet with size. But she has been a mess all week in St. Moritz, including a DNF in the Combi today. I would think she would be in the hunt. I do not put a lot of stock in training runs normally but her performance so far this week has been woeful. I just can’t imagine she is bringing confidence into tomorrow’s race. But staying with the Italians I would look to Elena Fanchini to make a splash. The Austrians to look for are Fenninger and Goergl. Lizzy certainly has the experience and the start number in her favor and she is big enough that the friction will not be that much of a penalty. I am not all that high on the French girls on this venue. I think they struggle with the bigger terrain and the blind knolls and turns. If I had to pick one of them it would be Marion Rolland. The Swiss girls are at home and that could boost the chances of someone like Lara Gut, Nadja Kamer, Fraenzi Aufdenblatten or Fabi Suter. Gut and Suter have good histories on this hill and both of them love the grippy snow but Suter is not on the start list. Kamer and Fraenzi start pretty early, maybe too early.
The Canadians start Larisa Yurkiw and Kelly Vanderbeek on their comeback trail. I have written a lot about Larisa already this season as she has been so impressive in rebuilding her career in a short period of time. Both of them are starting their first World Cup DH races since Lake Louise in December of 2009. Kelly’s comeback is very impressive too. But at least she was an established World Cup downhiller with a lot of success and experience. She has a much better idea of what all the racks look like. In fact, she has had a lot of starts, and success, in St. Moritz. The Canadians will also start Fernie girl and World Cup rookie, Sarah Freeman.
DARK HORSES
I would consider Mancuso at number 22 a dark horse for this race. She has one top ten in her career here but has a great start number and was 4th in the Combi downhill. Tina Weirather, the daughter of former World Cup stars Hanni Wenzel and Harti Weirather and has been on a roll so far this year. While she is not a big girl (about 5’4”) she has done well on “big girl” hills like Lake Louise. She has a nice touch on the snow so I could see something out of her. I could also see Nicole Hosp come out of the back to get something done.
Ok, here we go, an unexciting podium: Kildow J, Riesch and Goergl. Then Maze and Fenninger.
GARMISCH-PARTENKIRCHEN
Garmisch is one of the coolest stops on tour and one of the favorites for us Americans. There is an American military garrison there which houses the Edelweiss Lodge. The Edelweiss is a recreation and conference center for active military and their families, as well as retirees and civilians. There is also a shopping area where you can get genuine American goods. As a regular stop, after weeks on tour, it is great to be able to go the Edelweiss and meet some of the service men and women, have some dinner and an American Bud or two with the Commander. There also are laundry facilities and Armed Forces TV. Unfortunately, the boys will be in Chamonix next week trying to find the Super Bowl rather than in Garmisch where it is easy to find the game on TV. There are also many Americans on the base who teach in the school or run the hotel who help on the hill with running the race and also provide a large cheering section in the finish area. It is as close as we come to a home crowd in Europe. Before I move on, I want to thank everyone in the US Armed Forces for their dedication and bravery, and for being so hospitable to us over the years when we come to Garmisch.
The Kandahar Downhill track has been redesigned over the years and has become a very difficult race. The start pitch is steep and rugged, and runs over a road until it turns about 90 degrees to the left and crosses under a Nazi era chairlift. Then it hits high speed until the Eishang section into the Seilbahnsprung. That area of the course is brutal. It has tough turns and a lot of terrain, large and small. It then bends to the left again and hits the huge and visually intimidating Frei Falle jump. This is where I got to cover the hill last time I was there. The landing is so steep off this jump that we could only listen for the landing sound even though we were up in a TV tower, straight across from the take-off. Then there is a huge compression and some large swinging turns from there to the finish. It is a tough and very fast hill. The weather in Garmisch is often marginal with warm temperatures and fog seems to be a regular visitor. You can always expect limited visibility of some sort while you are there. Luckily, the weather looks like some very light snow with temperatures that are cold enough to have the track hold up well.
AMERICANS
Bode is our only top 30 guy, starting 16. Fish, Wiebrecht, Sully and Ganong go 31-34 which is really a great place to start. After the TV break and a sideslip. Although Fish better hope they don’t rub-off the flats. But if the turns get buffed out on the Starthang and in the Eishang section, that will help them a lot. Although, Sully not starting today training does concern me. Aspen boy Wiley Maple goes 39, Biesemeyer 47 and Tommy Ford 53. Honestly, I think every guy we have on the start list should be in the points in Garmisch. I totally believe that. It seems as though Ford is in the DH to get on the hill for SG but he certainly skis well enough to get the job done. Miller should be able to fight his way into the top 5.
CANADIANS
Erik Guay won the second training run and he had very good splits in the toughest sections. All that bodes well for him tomorrow. The number 13 bib is also good for him. His only real problem is that historically he has not handled winning training runs very well. Maybe it’s time to get past that and he has good history in Garmisch with 3 podiums including a win. Hudec starts 3, Benny Thomsen is 46 and Conrad Pridy is 50. Conrad is in his 3rd straight World Cup DH start.
FAVORITES
Other than Guay, the World Champion on this hill, the biggest favorite has to be Cuche. He has done well here and is coming off a record 5th win in Kitzbuehel. He has a great knack for staying within himself tactically and not taking ill-advised chances. He chooses his spots very well because his skiing allows him to make those choices. Innerhofer has also been great here but he has been off all season. But “Inner” had good training run and can definitely start to reel in the leaders the rest of the year. Kroell should be good on this hill but that Eishang section down to the Frei Falle could give him trouble. The tempo picks up there and I am not sure he has the GS skills to deal with that part of the hill. I would also throw Mario Scheiber into the mix as he has a good history on the reconfigured hill.
DARK HORSES
I am not buying the training performances from Theaux and Clarey. Theaux has never scored a World Cup point in Garmisch and Clarey was 15th once.
I do see good results from Jansrud and Reichelt due to their GS skills. I also think Svindal can do well but really, he has been off his game all year.
I could also see some best-ever type performances from Keppler and Sander, the German boys and from Romed Baumann.
PODIUM: CUCHE, GUAY AND MILLER with Reichelt and Innerhofer close behind.